Interesting rule could make for good first-round story line, but probably won’t. #MOLLiga #Hockey #playoffs

I am one full season in to a small European Hockey league and I am still getting surprised by the rules.  I read a post today from jegkorongblog.hu (Hungarian Ice Hockey blog) about the first seeded playoff team being able to pick their first round opponent.

This strikes me as odd, just because I have never heard of such a rule before.  Supposedly, if my Google Translate is working properly, other European leagues have a similar rule.  So, this rule is not unique to the MOL Liga.  However, I am thinking of the impact (or lack thereof) of such a rule in the MOL Liga specifically.

In this league, only four teams make the playoffs.  The first place team will likely choose the team they have the best chance of beating to get into the championship round.  In a regular seeding format, the best team gets to play the worst seeded playoff team; thus, this choice occurs automatically.  In some situations, maybe the fourth seeded team has had your number all season and you have a better chance at beating a higher seeded team in the first round and you want to take your chances in the championship round.  You’re hope then is that the other team can beat the team you are worried about.

But look, it’s the playoffs.  You are going to have to play a competitive team at some point.  You’re team is going to have to travel.  Sure, winning the championship is most important and if there is a little something you can do to give you a competitive advantage, then sure, go for it.

The interesting thing to me with this rule in a four team playoff is that you essentially choose your competitors first-round match-up.  That could be interesting if you think you could knock off your biggest challenge for the next round by making a choice for yourself.

Alright, here is a first-round playoff preview based on possible choices by DAB Docler, this season’s best regular season team.  If we had a normal seeding system, the first-round playoff matchups would be (assuming nothing crazy happens in today’s last set of matchups):

Scenario 1:

(1) DAB Docler v. (4) ASC Corona Brasov
(2) Miskolc Jegesmedvek v. (3) HSC Csikszereda

So, there is a good chance DAB takes Brasso by choice, making the above scenario reality.  This means the “choose your own team rule” was pointless and that seeding is the better way to go….at least in a season where DAB was way on top the entire season.

Advantages:  Potentially only one travel game to Romania for the playoffs if they can take care of business.  DAB has no good option for the Miskolc v. Csikszereda matchup.  If Miskolc wins, DAB has the more difficult matchup in the championship round.  If Csikszereda wins, then you have two rounds of travelling to Romania.  Travel versus opponent difficulty?  I take difficulty….it’s the playoffs and you’ve earned home ice.  Keep your guys comfortable in your city and in your arena.  For that reason, the regular seeding or Brasso choice would be smart.

Disadvantages:  Brasso is on fire.  Maybe the best goalkeeper in the league and the North American’s have been lighting up the score sheet.  DAB has been resting their big guns for the past couple weeks.  Do you take the chance of taking on the streaky team with potentially rusty guys?  I believe the away team gets the first home game, meaning this series could get interesting if Brasso steals the first game.

Scenario 2:

(1) DAB Docler v. (2) Miskolc Jegesmedvek
(3) HSC Csikszereda v. (4) ASC Corona Brasov

Advantages:  If I were DAB, this would be my choice.  You’ve been the best team in the league all season.  Take out the best team.  Give yourself the least amount of travel in the first round and if you win you ensure only one travel match, arguably against an easier team.  Also, this gives the Romanian fans some a rivalry opportunity in the first round.  I really think Brasso and Csikszereda could go either way too, so there is a better opportunity of two really good first round matchups….I think this is something the league could use.

Disadvantages:  Conventional wisdom would say you are tempting fate.  You rested your players for two or three weeks and now you are asking to play an opponent who has scored as much as you have and are the league’s second best team.  Maybe getting them after a first-round warm-up makes more sense.

Scenario 3:

(1) DAB Docler v. (3) HSC Csikszereda
(2) Miskolc Jegesmedvek v. (4) ASC Corona Brasov

Advantages:  DAB has dominated everyone all season–they should win this match.  You also put the hottest team up against your most challenging opponent.  Either way, you knock off a potential championship round stumbling block.

Disadvantages:  You might give yourself two rounds of travelling to Romania.

Again, if I were DAB, I would take Miskolc in the first round.  If you can’t beat them now, you’re not going to beat them in the next round.  You ensure only one round of travelling and a championship round against one of the two lower seeded teams.

But, my bet is they pick the fourth seeded team, currently Brasso.  This is why this rule makes little sense in a four team playoff format.  I imagine the best team will always pick the worse team for the best shot to the championship round.  Again, maybe if the teams in the league were a lot closer competitively then this could make a difference.

 

***Post update***

I learned after this original post that tiebreakers in MOL Liga go by the following rules:

“Ranking of the teams:

1. upon the total points received
2. in case of equal total points: upon the points received on direct matches against each other
3. in case of equal points received on direct matches: upon the goal difference on the direct matches
4. in case of equal goal difference on the direct matches: upon the more goals scored on the direct matches
5. In case of equal goals scored on the direct matches: upon the goal difference of the whole season
6. In case of the goal difference of the season is equal: upon the more goals scored during the whole season

This means ASC Corona Brasov was actually the odd team out and needed help from Nove Zamky to make it into the playoffs, because Nove Zamky had the better head-to-head record.  That did not happen and Nove Zamky took the fourth seed.  This too is an odd rule for hockey and for European sports.  Yet, I like this rule a lot.  I now too am happy for the best team-first round choice rule….

Redeeming myself, DAB Docler took my advice and chose Miskolc for the second round.  Though there will not be an all-Romanian MOL Liga first round matchup, the rest of my reasoning stands.  They keep themselves to only having to leave the country for one round, if they beat Miskolc.  They give us something really good to watch in the first round.  We will also get to see if resting their top players for the past few weeks will have any effect on DAB’s dominating season.

Here is the final standings on the season:

#MOLLiga Playoff scenarios. #hockey

After following the league all year, with a short hiatus over the holidays, it is a fun time for hockey.  Playoffs are starting for hockey all throughout Europe.  In the MOL Liga, there are still three teams fighting for the final two spots with only four game days left.  Below is the breakdown of possible scenarios based on tonight’s games, but first, the standings.

Points breakdown, which makes this oh so confusing growing up watching North American sports where a win is a win.  Nevertheless:

• 3 points for a regulation or overtime win;
• 2 points for a shootout win;
• 1 point for an overtime or shootout loss.

First, the easy ones.  DAB Docler (Dunaujvaros Acelbikak) have locked up the top spot and will have home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs.  The two Budapest teams, Ferencvaros and Ujpest, are out of playoff contention.

Miskolc Jegesmedvek

Miskolc have also locked up a playoff spot.  They also control their own destiny to grab the second seed and need only one point to secure first round home-ice.  However, if they lose out and HSC Csikszereda wins the rest of their games, Miskolc could drop to the third seed.  Miskolc plays Ferencvaros tonight at home, who put up a spirited performance against Nove Namky on Sunday night.

HSC Csikszereda

Csikszereda has not clinched a playoff spot yet, but could today on their night off, and they control their own chances.  Here are there playoff scenarios:

• If Csikszereda loses the remainder of their games and Nove Zamky and Corona Brasov win their games, then Csikszereda misses the playoffs;
• If Csikszereda gets one point in their final three games or if Nove Zamky or Corona Brasov get less than three points in their final three games, then Csikszereda clinches a spot;
• Csikszereda, if they make the playoffs, have the opportunity to get as high as the second seed, but could fall as low as fourth.

HC Nove Zamky

Nove Zamky is hanging on to the final playoff spot and the also control their own destiny.  There was a bit of a scare yesterday as Ferencvaros controlled the game early before giving up three third period goals.  Nove Zamky sealed the win with an empty netter with just over a minute to go to win 5-3.  Here are there playoff scenarios:

• Nove Zamky can clinch by winning their final three games or if Corona Brasov loses in regulation in two of their final three games;
• Currently, Nove Zamky has the point differential over Csikszereda, which is used for tiebreakers.  So, if Nove Zamky can make up the four point differential on Csikszereda they could grab the third seed.

ASC Corona Brasov

Brasso has been hanging on the edge of the final playoff spot all year.  They had an opportunity to gain on Nove Zamky last night, but lost in overtime against DAB Docler.  They still have a chance, but they need help.

• Brasso has the goal differential tiebreaker over both Nove Zamky and Csikszereda.  If they can tie either team in points, they can move as high as the third seed.
• Brasso needs one of the two teams above them to lose.  Csikszereda would have to lose all of their games for Brasso to take their spot.  They only need to gain one game on Nove Zamky to tie.

The interesting games down the stretch mostly fall into Brasso’s hands.  They have to play DAB Dolcer again on 24 February, but Nove Zamky has to play them tonight.  Brasso needs to win tonight and hope the Dunaujvaros plays their starters like they did against them on Sunday.  Brasso also has to play Csikszereda on 22 February.  The playoffs will be finalized likely based on the results of these three games.

Anyone up for a trip to Romania?

#2013WJC (delayed) #Moneypuck update. Results of pulling your goalie…does it matter?

A quick look at the results of pulling your keeper in the World Junior Championships.  There are some potential problems with this analysis.  First, if you switch goalies because you either leading by a lot or losing by a lot there may not be a reason for the teams to play as hard.  Bench players may also get more time, meaning less skill on the ice, possibly less scoring and defense.  Nevertheless, it’ll be interesting to look at the results.

The first keeper pulled was in game 2: Switzerland vs. Latvia.  The Swiss were up 5 to 2 after the second period and Latvia switched in Punnenovs for Merzlikins.  Switzerland’s offensive performance declined in the 3rd period, putting only 9 shots on goal in the 3rd (17 in the 1st and 13 in the 2nd).  However, the Swiss outscored the Latvian side 2-0 in the final period.  Latvia actually played worse in the 3rd period with the new keeper.

Punnenovs got the start in the final two games and finished with a 5.02 GAA.  Merzlikins finished with a 6.23 GAA.

The U.S. switched goalies after going up big against Germany in their 8-0 win.  Though it is hard to say definitively it had an effect, Gibson lost to a much better Russian side in their next match.

Germany moved away from Subban after there 9-3 loss to Canada.  Cupper started the final three games and lost 8-0, 7-0, and 2-1.

In both the U.S. vs. Russia and U.S. vs. Canada losses, Gibson was pulled in the final minutes to give the Americans an extra skater.  Neither instance led to the equalizer.  It would be interesting to see if more offense was generated when Gibson was out of the net, even though there were no goals.

Finland scored in five seconds after pulling Korpisalo in their 5-4 shootout win over Switzerland.  This goal was made by the extra skater, Markus Granlund, but during a faceoff.  Scoring on a possession in the offensive zone within five seconds makes it difficult to credit the goal to having the extra skater.  Nevertheless, that was the case.

So, it appears that in a tournament setting, that pulling your goalie when you are up to give them a rest in later games could affect them negatively in later games.  Also, generally speaking, pulling your goalie more often than not does not lead to that equalizer goal.  The wisdom is that the man advantage gives a team a better opportunity to score, but the extra goal rarely comes to fruition.

 

***This article was originally drafted in January.  Since there was an interesting goalie pulling situation in the under 20 tournament for the Hungarian team.  Mark Plekszan started in goal the first game and was chased out.  Hungary lost that first game.  He was replaced in the following game, but got the start again later.  He was again chased from the net; however, he was pulled early enough in the first period that Hungary was able to come back and win that game.  The mixed result here is that pulling him in the tournament probably didn’t help his confidence.   Yet, making an early decision in a tournament to pull your keeper could be beneficial.  Though, it seems if a team decides to make that switch, then they should stick with their decision for the rest of the tournament.  This was played out in the 2013 WJC and some of the Olympic prequalifying tournaments, as the teams that switched goalies the least had the most success.

All-nighter delirious blog update

Just spent an all-nighter trying to get this presentation for class completed.  The job search is on hold during finals.  Unfortunately, that means this blog is going slower than usual as well.

Soon enough it will be over and there will be some more hockey in store.  I already have Amsterdam, Cologne, Prague, Vienna and Bratislava on the travel agenda over the holidays.  There are also a couple MOL League games that I will be attending as well.  Lots of updates to come after this two week period.

Despite my lack of sleep, I plan to live update the MOL League action tonight from the comfort of my home.  The games are:

DAB Docler – Ujpest:  DAB has not lost at home yet this season (yikes)

Brasov and Ferencvaros – in this week’s EuroHockey.com article, I called this the Game of the Week.  Both teams need points and they need them from each other.  Brasov was on fire over the weekend.  Ferencvaros can come alive at any point – though I don’t know how well of a travel squad they have these days…important matchup nonetheless.

Csikszereda vs. Miskolc:  Miskolc has the second spot by a game.  Csikszereda moved into third because of a slumping Novy Zamky.  This could be a potential first round playoff matchup.  The winner could get the home ice…which makes a huge difference if you have to play one or more games on the road eight hours away.

Follow me on Twitter and on this blog for live updates.  Enjoy your weekend!

“Ultras” in European sport. #Italians at it again against #UK fans. Does this happen in North America?

Earlier this week, the British press reported on a horrific incident prior to a European football (soccer) match in Rome between Tottenham (UK) and Lazio (Italy). The link to the Guardian article is here if you want to read the whole thing.

The story in a nutshell is that 50 or so Italian “Ultras” dressed in modern suits of armor and equipped with knives bats, and other bludgeons, went into a bar where Tottenham fans were known to be having some drinks and unleashed an attack on the patrons. Several were stabbed and beaten and had to be admitted to the hospital. Others luckily got away unscathed. The bar was also badly damaged in the incident.

An Italian newspaper covering the incident stated the scene looked like “urban warfare” and the worse was feared (read: murder).

I found out about this from Twitter. A Canadian hockey player tweeted about the incident and exclaimed this was the difference between European and North American sports. In North America, you can wear your teams opposing jersey and be fairly safe, with a verbal assault or beer thrown on you here or there. At first, I completely agreed….but then I thought that our games are not completely without violence.

To be fair, Canada had a crazy riot in Vancouver in 2011. In a preseason baseball, there was huge fight out in California. The Philadelphia Eagles have notoriously rowdy fans and even had a courtroom to process illegal offenders in Veterans Stadium. I have had friends who were not allowed into several bars during the Stanley Cup playoffs in Pittsburgh while wearing a Red Wings jersey. To my Canadian friend’s credit though, we do not get a gang of 50 people in protective gear and premeditate attacks on opposing team members. This gets me back to the Ultras….

When I first attended my first soccer match in Budapest we encountered a wall scrawled with “solo ultras” in spray paint. I initially thought Ultras might have been the team mascot. Ultras are actually the crazy, fanatic, super fans.

A weathered Ujpest Ultras sticker on a light pole outside of Ferenc Szusza Stadium north of Budapest.

Ultras have even been studied academically. In the linked study, Ultras are described as a European phenomenon that do “not deliberately set out to commit violence”. They consider themselves the ultimate fan and demand attention from the club. They also spend a lot of money each game on elaborate pyrotechnic demonstrations (often in excess of 4,500 Euros per game). Seeing the pregame demonstrations in person, I must admit they are pretty amazing, but anything similar is strictly prohibited across the Atlantic.

Ok-so the problem is not all of the Ultras. But, in specific countries, Ultras are an issue. In Hungary, some Ujpest and Ferencvaros fans have been known to meet in a location away from the security of the game to brawl. If people want to get together and voluntarily beat each other, it is a little weird I suppose, but they are all adults. The problem is with innocent by-standards being harmed.

If these incidents are rare, then the police rightfully should look at them as a few bad apples and prosecute them as necessary. A major problem arises when there are multiple incidents and the government allows matches to continue. It appears some Middleborough fans were attacked in Rome in the same manner prior to a match against AS Roma in 2006.

What’s worse? Some Eastern European teams disguise their sports fandome for nutcase right-wing political ideology. In Czech Republic and Serbia, there have been recent incidents monkey chants at black players on opposing teams. I wrote about these issues, as well as the anti-Semetic incidents in Hungary in a soccer match against the Israeli National Team. Government’s have been complicit in some instances by not investigating when they should and implicit when their governments share a similar ideology (Hungary’s third largest party, Jobbik, are deeply anti-Semitic and anti-Roma).

So what should be done? UEFA has begun punishing national teams for their behavior (Croatia fined $100,000 for racist chants against Italy this summer). I think this is the right direction.

On that note, I think all games in Rome should be suspended after at least two wild incidents over the past seven years. You could argue that punishing all football fans because of 50 thugs is unneccessary. This is no longer about sports, but for keeping the safety of innocent tourists. Rome has a huge tourism industry and if they cannot protect their tourists, they should dissuade them from coming until they can address the problem. Punishment must include self-policing from the teams and from the real “Ultras”. I believe it will take the courage to suspend all games by the government, preventing these cowardly acts until proper action can be made.

MOL Liga play starts back up tonight. Big matchups at the halfway point. Live updates for the #Ujpest #Csikszereda on Twitter.

MOL Liga play starts back up this evening after the Olympic prequalifier break.

The big matchup this evening involve DAB Dolcer and the Miskolc Jegesmedvek (Polar Bears).  DAB has won all three games this season against Miskolc, but the games were close.  The Polar Bears look to gain ground on Novy Zamky; a win here could get them within one point of second place in the standings.

Novy Zamky is at home tonight against Corona Brasov.  Brasov sits nine points out for the last playoff and need to get a winning streak going.  Tonight would be a good time to break their two game losing streak.

Ujpest is on their last leg for having any playoff hopes.  HSC Csikszereda should be playing with urgency as well to move up from their current position.  These two teams meet tonight in Budapest.

Ferencvaros has the night off, but picks it back up at home on Sunday.

I will give scoring and between period updates on my Twitter feed for the Ujpest/Csikszereda matchup.  Follow me on Twitter (@bourciertm) or check out delayed updates on the right side of my blog.  Friday hockey in Hungary at 18:00!

Almost midseason MOL Liga update. Where do the teams stand?

The MOL-Liga is almost at the halfway point.  The multinational league has seven teams: four Hungarian, two Romanian and a Slovak side.  I posted a full update over at EuroHockey.com.  A quick starter…Central Europe’s hockey lovers need to know about THE DAB-Dolcer (website in Hungarian – use a browser that can translate non-Hungarians:

DAB Docler (Dunaujvaros, Hungary) – Current Record: 18-1-1-1 – 57 Points (First Place)

DAB Docler have rode last year’s shared first place finish and MOL-League championship to jump way out front in the standings this year so far. They currently have four of the five top scorers in the league (Galanisz (13-21-34), Pavuk (9-23-32), Szappanos (19-11-30) and Azari (13-15-28)) who are also leading in the plus/minus category (+23, +23, +22, +22, respectively). Peter Sevela, DAB’s goaltender, is also having a brilliant season; he is sitting on a near 96% save percentage and 1.32 goals against average. Maybe most impressive is that Sevela has logged more minutes in net than any other keeper this season. It is no wonder why this team has only one regulation loss in 21 games!

 

What I learned about international hockey this weekend. #Monday thoughts

This was an awesome weekend for me.  I was able to watch the national teams of Netherlands, Hungary, Lithuania and Croatia.  I learned a ton…these are my Monday thoughts:

Budapest is ready for a professional hockey team

Budapest Sports Arena seats just over 9,479 people for hockey games.  Built in 2003, it is a state-of-the-art facility.  There are bathrooms outside of every gate, as well as concession areas.  There was a great video introduction of the team, complete with music, pyrotechnics and 20 or so figure skaters.  Csuszka the Bear (the name which translates into a bird) was greeting fans in the stands.  There was intermission entertainment.

…and the fans.  They were strong.  A complete cheering section of loud, boisterous and supportive fans…and they seemed to have a good grasp of the game.  Four people on the war drums!

Attendance:  4,350 on Friday and over 6,000 on Saturday and Sunday.  Attendance was better in Budapest than in the Ukraine on the final two days and five times the attendance in Japan.

Zagreb, Ljubljana, Vienna, Bratislava and Prague all have teams that seem to be successful.  Why not Budapest?  If the problem is they are looking for a young, energetic, business-minded professional to spearhead the movement with some strong financial backing, then I know just the guy….

Oh, not to mention, the hockey world would get to know this Hungarian classic sing-along that is played after every goal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDyOruGN76Y

Great Britain doesn’t care much about hockey

According to the Nielsen ratings, hockey is the most buzzed about sport during the Winter Olympics.  Great Britain has the 21st ranked team in the world.  Here is the publicity their prequalification win got in the Times today:

It is my understanding the Great Britain had the opportunity to host the prequalification group they were in, but declined.  I feel bad for the players and I am rooting for them to make it, because the hockey world could use the UK’s support.

Live tweeting is hard!

Especially when Hungary decides to put up 13 goals in a game, one game goes to a shootout and the Netherlands put up 23 goals in three days.  My iPhone made it through fine and I am happy to report my thumb is in fine condition.

I am excited for more international hockey

I am considering doing this again for the qualifying tournament somewhere in February and definitely for the World Championships here in April.  I don’t have plans to become a sports journalist, but live tweeting, the recaps and all that other stuff really makes me get into the game and pay attention to what is going on.  These different perspectives of watching a game: as a fan, as a statistician and as someone trying to tell others a story is a lot of fun.

Ok-off to do some paid work (unfortunately) and Advanced Macro homework (even more unfortunate).  Hockey starts back up on Friday when the two Romanian MOL League teams come to Budapest.  A little respite from school.

Sunday shout outs!

It has been an amazing weekend for me.  For about $4 per game I was able to watch international hockey all weekend.  The Budapest crowd was ridiculous and I am surprised they do not have a club in the city proper.  The Netherlands pulled off the upset in a shootout today, but they played well and really deserved it.

By the way. if there are rich Hungarians, or business people otherwise, looking for a young, energetic person to spearhead the movement of getting a pro team going here in Budapest, I know just the guy…

Anyway, I have added a new link to the right for articles I am publishing.  I will archive all of the EuroHockey.com articles here.  This weekend’s write-ups were all about Olympic prequalifiers.  Some time next week I am hoping to have an update about the Hungarian MOL League at the near halfway point of the season.

Since I appreciate everyone reading this blog, following me on Twitter and checking out my recaps, I am starting a weekly Sunday Shout Out post.  This is the first of what I hope are many, so here we go:

Followers:

sunnysleevez and toastysthoughts are on WordPress.  My friends Pat and Carrie were awesome enough to get email spam from me as well.  You’re all awesome!

Twitter:

So, my Twitter was private for a while and I didn’t use it as much.  I lost some “friends” with my obnoxious posting this weekend, but I gained some others.  Thanks to these guys!

Hendrik Bakker ‏ @BakkerH86

Crazy hockeyplayer en proud fan of the@frieslandflyers VAK ZG NO SURRENDER!!!!

Zsolt ‏ @Budapestphotos

A University lecturer with a crazy mind

Audra Baerg ‏ @hollaataudrabae

Men’s best successes come after their disappointments.

Tim Ansell ‏ @timmychoc

pearls of wisdom from a portly fellow

Derek O’Brien ‏ @Djob76

A Canadian, living in Prague, former hockey player and referee, now a gymnázium teacher and hockey writer. Also loves baseball and history.

Bruce Peter ‏ @puckworlds

This is the official twitter feed for Puck Worlds, SB Nation’s international hockey blog. You can follow site editor Bruce Peter@saskhab

Eurohockey com ‏ @eurohockey

All about European ice hockey and a lot about hockey elsewhere.

Jon Rowson ‏ @JonRowson

Student. Writer: @HC_slovan_offic &@Eurohockey. Fan: Slovan Bratislava, Slavia Praha, Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod, Coventry Blaze, HC Davos & Slovakia. I blog too.

Jeff Povey ‏ @jeffpovey 

Fan of Swindon Speedway, HC Pardubice, Reading FC, Poker Player, new convert to live Rugby League after watching on Sky Sports ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

Some girl sent me her ass…screw it, shout out to her.  Twitter really is a weird place!

Joleen Niedbala ‏ @Malisa66eux6

Big shout out to Larry Jones (@lawjones5) a good friend who spammed the hell out of people all weekend with retweets for me.  Good looking out!

Happy Sunday everyone!  I look forward to meeting new friends as this experiment progresses…

Hungary vs. The Netherlands – Group G #Olympic prequalifier final in #Budapest. Follow me on Twitter for live updates.

Hungary will take on the Netherlands in front of a Budapest home crowd at the Budapest Sports Arena at 17:30 this evening (GMT +1).  Both finalists have been completely dominant over Lithuania and Croatia in the first two days of action.

Neither team has really seen their goaltenders tested, so tonight’s game should be a battle of who is better in the net.

Hungary has the home crowd advantage and the better skaters.  The Netherlands have the more physical side and Hungary has not seen much physical play yet.  Hungary should take this, especially if Holland continues to come out of the gate slowly.

Anything can happen, but I am going to guess a 5-4 game…..I really can’t pick a winner.  If I was a betting man, I would keep my money in my pocket on this one.  Too many wild cards to take into account.  Both teams can score and neither team has been tested.  Maybe Hungary with the edge because of the fans…

The consolation match is Croatia and Lithuania at 14:00.  I will not be live tweeting this game.  However, you can get live updates of your own at the IIHF Group G website.  After the game starts, there will be a ‘live’ link where you can see scoring and penalty updates shortly after they occur.

Hungary’s Sofron just before scoring on a penalty shot in Saturday’s 13-0 win of Croatia.